Trade Results

Portfolio Performance
Pro Zones Trades -
 

Win Rate

Closed Positions

Reward/Risk Ratio

Average Position Size

12 Months

Simulated Performance


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SYMBOL Strategy Side Effect Qty Expiration Strike Type Price
SPY
Put
Sold
Close
-1
May 20, 2022
415.00
Put
15.75 Credit

Target Metrics

Reward Risk R/R Ratio
$20.00 $5.00 4.00

REALIZED RESULTS

P/L ROI
-4.91 -23.77%
Reason for Closing:

I'm closing this position down as the SPX is likely to see a fairly significant reversal when the Federal Reserve announces an increase in interest rates to combat inflation on 05/04/2022. Although I'm taking a loss on this position, it was always added as a volatility hedge to protect my other bullish positions during a very uncertain and headline risky environment.

SYMBOL Strategy Side Effect Qty Expiration Strike Type Price
SPY
Put
Bought
Open
+1
May 20, 2022
415.00
Put
20.66 Debit

Target Metrics

Reward Risk R/R Ratio
$20.00 $5.00 4.00

ACTUAL PARAMETERS

Reward Risk Trade Risk
$394.34 $20.66 7.00%
Reason for Opening:

I closed my Long Calls which were added as a hedge last week when the outlook was uncertain and pivoted the risk capital from calls to puts as I see a fairly precipitous drop over the next 3-7 days in the S&P 500 as more information comes out regarding the Kremlin's intension's following the initial invasion of Ukraine by Russia and various consequences announced by NATA and UN nations.

LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN

If price appears to be breaking back above the 4235 price level I will consider selling short term puts if the outlook still appears to see price move lower, or I will close this position if conditions change and price is likely to continue higher.

PROFIT MANAGEMENT PLAN

I will look to capture profits around the 3970-3850 price levels in the SPX.

SYMBOL Strategy Side Effect Qty Expiration Strike Type Price
SPX
Bull Put
Bought
Close
+1
Apr 14, 2022
4590.00
Put
Sold
Close
-1
Apr 14, 2022
4585.00
Put
5.00 Debit

Target Metrics

Reward Risk R/R Ratio
$0.35 $1.50 0.23

REALIZED RESULTS

P/L ROI
-4.65 -100.00%
Reason for Closing:

Will re-add this position next week.

SYMBOL Strategy Side Effect Qty Expiration Strike Type Price
SPX
Bull Put
Sold
Open
-1
Apr 14, 2022
4590.00
Put
Bought
Open
+1
Apr 14, 2022
4585.00
Put
0.35 Credit

Target Metrics

Reward Risk R/R Ratio
$0.35 $1.50 0.23

ACTUAL PARAMETERS

Reward Risk Trade Risk
$0.35 $4.65 5.00%
Reason for Opening:

ADJUSTMENT 04/14/2022 @ 12:50 PM ET: I rolled this position to the 04/14 expiration for a 0.85 debit which leaves me with a 0.35 credit but most importantly as long as price still supports a likely move up into the 4635-4650 level in the near term, this adjustment is saving me from a maximum loss, and to me, that makes sense in appropriate situations. Overall the thesis that supports this position is still intact, please see the mid-day review in the calendar from 04/08 for a more thorough understanding of how things are still likely to develop which justifies continuing to work with this position to simply avoid a loss. Again, making an adjustment is not simply something I am doing in this instance "hoping" it works. The framework that supported the reasoning for the position in the first place is simply still intact and it is now more of an effort to give the spread a little more time so as to avoid taking a maximum loss when price still suggests a near term move up above my short put strike (4590) and up into the 4635-4650 price levels. ADJUSTMENT 04/06/2022 @ 2:45 PM ET: After watching the balancing on the 48.6% fib as discussed in the Daily Outlook on 04/06, I decided it was worth sticking with managing this position to reduce the loss and rolled the position out to the 8 APR 2022 expiry. This cost me 0.30 debit leaving me with 1.20 credit. ========================================== ADJUSTMENT 04/04/2022 @ 1:47 PM ET: As mention in 360 Review from 04/01, I am sticking with this bull put but would likely need to roll on Monday (04/04). I just rolled this position to 04/06 expiry which cost 0.80 debit leaving me with a 1.50 credit. ===================================================================================================================== I'm opening this position as a hedge to my bear call that expires on 04/11. I've put this one in a nearer expiration as I expect price to still hit the 4550ish price level before likely rapid continuation lower. Please listen to Post-Market Review from 03/29 for a better understanding of my current views. Here's chart: http://tos.mx/Jd6thkG

LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN

I will continue to manage this position as appropriate. Will update daily in the Post-Market Review as to my intentions based on how price develops.

PROFIT MANAGEMENT PLAN

I will likely allow this position to expire worthless.

SYMBOL Strategy Side Effect Qty Expiration Strike Type Price
SPX
Bear Call
Bought
Close
+1
Apr 11, 2022
4550.00
Call
Sold
Close
-1
Apr 11, 2022
4555.00
Call
1.00 Debit

Target Metrics

Reward Risk R/R Ratio
$2.00 $1.50 1.33

REALIZED RESULTS

P/L ROI
+1.00 33.33%
Reason for Closing:

Closing this position as I still see a move up to the 4640 price level as long as the 4465 holds as support through the end of the day today.

SYMBOL Strategy Side Effect Qty Expiration Strike Type Price
SPX
Bear Call
Sold
Open
-1
Apr 11, 2022
4550.00
Call
Bought
Open
+1
Apr 11, 2022
4555.00
Call
2.00 Credit

Target Metrics

Reward Risk R/R Ratio
$2.00 $1.50 1.33

ACTUAL PARAMETERS

Reward Risk Trade Risk
$2.00 $3.00 5.00%
Reason for Opening:

ADJUSTMENT March 30, 2022 @ 3:00 PM ET: I rolled this position today as as discussed in the Post-Market Review on 03/29. I rolled from 04/04 to 04/11 expiry and it cost me 0.30 debit. My original credit was 2.30 which leaves me with 2.00 of credit remaining. The overall thesis for carrying this position is still in tact. For a more comprehensive understanding of my view, please see the Post-Market Review recording from 03/29. As a brief overview, based on multiple mid and long term zones, it makes sense to continue to maintain this position as we have risen into several major auction zones that should provide descent resistance if the market type continues to be Bear/Sideways Volatile. ============================================================================================================== This position is based on over a week of balancing at the top of a vertical pattern higher that has failed to definitively show evidence that price intends to break higher. Additionally, we have come into a major auction zone on the 20yr. timeframe that would be presumed to be resistance: http://tos.mx/r7pBLVw Price has also risen into multiple other zones on various time frames that would also be presumed to be resistance at current levels which are accessible in the charts below: 20 Year Zones: http://tos.mx/r7pBLVw 1 Month Zones: http://tos.mx/0doLuDW 3 Month Zones: http://tos.mx/BJc7XeW ***All analysis is done on /ES but position was executed in SPX

LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN

I expect that the /ES will still explore the 4650 price level before experiencing any likely continuation lower. If we haven't hit the 4650 level, and are still hovering between 4565-4600 by Tuesday 04/05, I will continue to manage this position by rolling another week out in duration to not get caught with too little time before price hits the upside target.

PROFIT MANAGEMENT PLAN

I will likely allow this position to expire worthless.

SYMBOL Strategy Side Effect Qty Expiration Strike Type Price
PHX
Stock
Sold
Close
-100
N/A
2.42
Stock
2.84 Credit

Target Metrics

Reward Risk R/R Ratio
$2.42 $0.42 5.76

REALIZED RESULTS

P/L ROI
+0.42 17.36%
Reason for Closing:

The U.S. natural gas commodity trade is getting increasingly complicated. I'm closing this one for now to take advantage of some different positions that present a clearer setup in the near term. http://tos.mx/RM0aclT

SYMBOL Strategy Side Effect Qty Expiration Strike Type Price
PHX
Stock
Bought
Open
+100
N/A
2.42
Stock
2.42 Debit

Target Metrics

Reward Risk R/R Ratio
$2.42 $0.42 5.76

ACTUAL PARAMETERS

Reward Risk Trade Risk
$0.00 $2.42 12.00%
Reason for Opening:

I continue to expect that oil prices will continue to increase as a result of a multiplicity of forces which include a global push to mass adoption of Electric Vehicles as well as clean energy, as well as current geopolitical tensions in the European area. I think the more conservative approach to exposure to increasing oil prices resulting from limiting supply and high demand, using the Oil ETF (Ticker: USO) is probably a more conservative approach. I've decided to gain exposure in this sector in a U.S. Based company that I've had my eye on for quite some time - PHX Minerals. I've decided to take this approach as I believe PHX will generally benefit from the overall increase in oil prices but I am also anticipating the U.S. will ramp up national production and rely less on oil imports in an effort to reduce supply chain constraints that have caused surging price. This is more of an undervalued, opportunistic play for me where I see approx. 200-270% of upside from current prices of 2.40ish to approx. 7.50 - 9.00 per/share. Here's my chart showing the auction zones as I see them on the ThinkorSwim Platform: http://tos.mx/PhFoz4M

LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN

I will look to close this position if price drops below the 2.05 price level.

PROFIT MANAGEMENT PLAN

I will look to capture profits at the 7.50 price level or before depending on continued monitoring of progress to my overall target.

SYMBOL Strategy Side Effect Qty Expiration Strike Type Price
SPY
Put
Sold
Close
-1
Sep 16, 2022
430.00
Put
30.45 Credit

Target Metrics

Reward Risk R/R Ratio
$41.00 $12.00 3.42

REALIZED RESULTS

P/L ROI
+1.45 5.00%
Reason for Closing:

Closing this position as the market will likely rally pretty hard into the close today and will reopen as appropriate, next week.

SYMBOL Strategy Side Effect Qty Expiration Strike Type Price
SPY
Put
Bought
Open
+1
Sep 16, 2022
430.00
Put
29.00 Debit

Target Metrics

Reward Risk R/R Ratio
$41.00 $12.00 3.42

ACTUAL PARAMETERS

Reward Risk Trade Risk
$401.00 $29.00 12.00%
Reason for Opening:

I am getting more significantly positioned for a fairly substantial broad market correction. Here's shared chart with levels highlight with yellow rectangles: http://tos.mx/GB8FeSh

LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN

I will look to close this position if price breaks above the 4520 price level, or fails to move back below the 4125 price level within by July 2022.

PROFIT MANAGEMENT PLAN

I will look to capture profits around the 3600 - 2850 price levels in the SPX.

SYMBOL Strategy Side Effect Qty Expiration Strike Type Price
SPY
Put
Sold
Close
-1
Jul 15, 2022
440.00
Put
29.70 Credit

Target Metrics

Reward Risk R/R Ratio
$411.00 $28.60 14.37

REALIZED RESULTS

P/L ROI
+0.70 2.41%
Reason for Closing:

Closing this position as the market will likely rally pretty hard into the close today and will reopen as appropriate, next week.

SYMBOL Strategy Side Effect Qty Expiration Strike Type Price
SPY
Put
Bought
Open
+1
Jul 15, 2022
440.00
Put
29.00 Debit

Target Metrics

Reward Risk R/R Ratio
$411.00 $28.60 14.37

ACTUAL PARAMETERS

Reward Risk Trade Risk
$411.00 $29.00 12.00%
Reason for Opening:

The market appears to be continuing lower which will bring the SPX down to approx. 4160-4100 over the next several weeks. ThinkorSwim Chart: http://tos.mx/G3IpPIR

LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN

I will look to close this position if price breaks above the high of day on 2/14.

PROFIT MANAGEMENT PLAN

I will look to capture profits around the 4160-4100 price levels in the SPX.

SYMBOL Strategy Side Effect Qty Expiration Strike Type Price
XRX
Stock
Sold
Close
-100
N/A
24.00
Stock
19.30 Credit

Target Metrics

Reward Risk R/R Ratio
$24.00 $3.00 8.00

REALIZED RESULTS

P/L ROI
-4.70 -19.58%
Reason for Closing:

I'm re-deploying this capital to become more significantly aligned with a more significant market correction.

SYMBOL Strategy Side Effect Qty Expiration Strike Type Price
XRX
Stock
Bought
Open
+100
N/A
24.00
Stock
24.00 Debit

Target Metrics

Reward Risk R/R Ratio
$24.00 $3.00 8.00

ACTUAL PARAMETERS

Reward Risk Trade Risk
$0.00 $24.00 10.00%
Reason for Opening:

Let me begin by stating that this position is both a technical and fundamental play. The current technical side of this position is comparable to the price pattern seen between July and November of 2009. XRX has risen strongly into a 20-year auction zone and has been clustering for nearly 6 months at the said zone which can be seen here: http://tos.mx/jgiCJu2. The fundamental play is two-fold. The corporate office has fundamentally changed due to the pandemic. Corporations and their employees were forced to shift from commuting to the office to working remotely. Teams, we able to make this shift rapidly, in part, due to the emerging technologies, like Zoom Meetings, which enabled them to continue to communicate and collaborate. We've all seen Zoom Video (Ticker: ZM) balloon over 850% when the onset of the pandemic began. With many large corporations adopting extended and even permanent work-from-home policies, such as Microsoft, Twitter, Square, Dell, and Amazon to list a few, opportunistic investments that support the home office still have significant growth opportunities. One major inefficiency that continues to be problematic in the shift to the home office is the ability for companies to rapidly distribute documents that require a hard copy. One major example of this inefficiency is seen in the business dealings of the IRS. The Internal Revenue Service receives nearly 3.5 trillion in gross annual revenues via taxes. On average, their customers are issued more than $450 billion in refunds each year. As the case is made in a recent *Washington Post article, which I will include at the bottom of this research, their is a massive backlog of tax returns. As the Post article points out, the agency is dealing with an unprecedented number of broken printers and copiers along with staffing shortages. This backlog is costing both the IRS and taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars. With the copy room shuttered in corporate offices, thousands of other companies are faced with similar problematic issues of easily distributing hard paper material, where required, to staff and customers. The IRS and other public and private companies will need to repair this inefficiency and it is of my opinion that Xerox Holdings Corporation (Ticker: XRX) is perfectly positioned to be a major supplier of the solution. RESOURCES: - XRX Chart: http://tos.mx/qk2UJPv Washington Post Article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/05/11/tax-refund-delays-irs-printers-ink/

LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN

As the equity rises into historic auction zones where price is likely to stall, and or retrace, I will strategically use short calls to both reduce the original risk outlayed in this position and collect income against the core equity holding.

PROFIT MANAGEMENT PLAN

In addition to strategically using short calls to collect income against the core equity holding. I will seek to hold the equity as a long term growth position and will look to rebalance my portfolio by closing the equity position at the higher historical auction zone which puts the stock between $55-60 per/share depending on the duration it takes for the equity to rise to that level.

SYMBOL Strategy Side Effect Qty Expiration Strike Type Price
SPY
Put
Bought
Close
+1
Apr 14, 2022
440.00
Put
15.99 Debit

Target Metrics

Reward Risk R/R Ratio
$15.62 $1.00 15.62

REALIZED RESULTS

P/L ROI
-0.37 -0.09%
Reason for Closing:

Removing these short puts as I see yesterday and today simply testing the previous multi-month support after breaking lower on Wednesday and will likely continue lower next week. Just holding long puts at this point in SPY.

SYMBOL Strategy Side Effect Qty Expiration Strike Type Price
SPY
Put
Sold
Open
-1
Apr 14, 2022
440.00
Put
15.62 Credit

Target Metrics

Reward Risk R/R Ratio
$15.62 $1.00 15.62

ACTUAL PARAMETERS

Reward Risk Trade Risk
$15.62 $424.38 12.00%
Reason for Opening:

ADJUSTMENT 02/24/2022 @ 1:17 AM ET: I am rolling these short puts out from 4 MAR 2022 out, all the way to 14 APR 2022 as the near term is highly vulnerable to extreme volatility and I am able to receive an additional 5.75 of credit which puts my current net credit at 15.62 and removes the risk of early assignment on these puts with price trading significantly below the 440 price level in the SPY. ================================================== ADJUSTMENT 02/22/2022 @ 10:50am ET: In anticipation of a short term test of the 4250 price level in the SPX, I've gone ahead and rolled this position out to the 4 MAR 2022 expiration and was able to do so for an additional credit of 3.62 which brings my net credit up to 9.87. I do anticipate the market to rally in the near term following a test of the 4250 price level. ================================================ Volume was extremely light on this selloff today, based on what I'm seeing right now, I expect the /ES will bounce up to approx. 4500 before reversing lower. I'm adding this short put to hedge against my long puts. ThinkorSwim Chart: http://tos.mx/bclTju0

LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN

I will continue to roll/manage this position.

PROFIT MANAGEMENT PLAN

I will continue to roll/manage this position as long as I'm able to do so for further credit.

SYMBOL Strategy Side Effect Qty Expiration Strike Type Price
AMZN
Bull Put
Bought
Close
+1
Mar 4, 2022
3035.00
Put
Sold
Close
-1
Mar 4, 2022
3025.00
Put
5.25 Debit

Target Metrics

Reward Risk R/R Ratio
$4.25 $2.00 2.12

REALIZED RESULTS

P/L ROI
-1.00 -17.39%
Reason for Closing:

Closing this position until more clarity on overall near-term direction of markets.

SYMBOL Strategy Side Effect Qty Expiration Strike Type Price
AMZN
Bull Put
Sold
Open
-1
Mar 4, 2022
3035.00
Put
Bought
Open
+1
Mar 4, 2022
3025.00
Put
4.25 Credit

Target Metrics

Reward Risk R/R Ratio
$4.25 $2.00 2.12

ACTUAL PARAMETERS

Reward Risk Trade Risk
$4.25 $5.75 5.00%
Reason for Opening:

I expect AMZN to bounce approx. 10% from lows of 02/18 to around the 3310 price level over the next several weeks. Here's the chart: http://tos.mx/A8Hc7kO

LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN

I will look to close this position if AMZN fails to hold the 3000 price level

PROFIT MANAGEMENT PLAN

I will let this position expire worthless.

SYMBOL Strategy Side Effect Qty Expiration Strike Type Price
SPY
Call
Sold
Close
-1
May 20, 2022
435.00
Call
10.79 Credit

Target Metrics

Reward Risk R/R Ratio
$30.00 $5.00 6.00

REALIZED RESULTS

P/L ROI
-7.31 -40.39%
Reason for Closing:

Switching this risk capital to the other side of the options chain as I see a fairly precipitous drop over the next 3-7 days in the S&P 500 as more information comes out regarding the Kremlin's intension's following the initial invasion of Ukraine by Russia and various consequences announced by NATA and UN nations.

SYMBOL Strategy Side Effect Qty Expiration Strike Type Price
SPY
Call
Bought
Open
+1
May 20, 2022
435.00
Call
18.10 Debit

Target Metrics

Reward Risk R/R Ratio
$30.00 $5.00 6.00

ACTUAL PARAMETERS

Reward Risk Trade Risk
$0.00 $18.10 10.00%
Reason for Opening:

This is a tough move to make with the geopolitical tensions swirling, but there is a very strong technical support that we just came in to. The whole Russia/Ukraine tension has been the headline excuse to justify the move lower over the past week and a half. Any amount of positive news regarding deescalation between Russia & Ukraine and it will be excuse to rally and move back towards the 4675 price level. Here's the chart with the 20 year zones with yellow rectangles highlighting the thesis that is behind executing this position: http://tos.mx/bOWgiMd

LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN

I will look to close this position if price appears to be breaking below the 4300 price level.

PROFIT MANAGEMENT PLAN

I will look to capture profits when the SPX is around the 4625 price level.

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