Win Rate
Closed Positions
Reward/Risk Ratio
Average Position Size
12 Months
Simulated Performance
SYMBOL | Strategy | Side | Effect | Qty | Expiration | Strike | Type | Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPX
|
Bear Call
|
Bought
|
Close
|
+1
|
Apr 22, 2020 |
2765.00
|
Call
|
|
Sold
|
Close
|
-1
|
Apr 22, 2020 |
2770.00
|
Call
|
1.80
Debit
|
Target Metrics
Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio |
---|---|---|
$3.10 | $1.50 | 2.07 |
REALIZED RESULTS
P/L | ROI |
---|---|
+1.30 | 68.42% |
Closing this position a bit early as I expect that the SPX could retrace up into the 2810 price level prior to this position expiring.
SYMBOL | Strategy | Side | Effect | Qty | Expiration | Strike | Type | Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPX
|
Bear Call
|
Sold
|
Open
|
-1
|
Apr 22, 2020 |
2765.00
|
Call
|
|
Bought
|
Open
|
+1
|
Apr 22, 2020 |
2770.00
|
Call
|
3.10
Credit
|
Target Metrics
Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio |
---|---|---|
$3.10 | $1.50 | 2.07 |
ACTUAL PARAMETERS
Reward | Risk | Trade Risk |
---|---|---|
$3.10 | $1.90 | 7.00% |
EXPIRATION is 04/22/2020 on the 2765/2770 bear call. I'm opening this position as an additional position to take advantage of what I view as a highly probable progression in price over the next week down to the 2660-2720 price levels.
LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN
I will look to close this position if it appears we are going to close above the 2810 price level.
PROFIT MANAGEMENT PLAN
I will let this position expire worthless.
SYMBOL | Strategy | Side | Effect | Qty | Expiration | Strike | Type | Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GLD
|
Bear Call
|
Bought
|
Close
|
+1
|
Apr 17, 2020 |
160.00
|
Call
|
|
Sold
|
Close
|
-1
|
Apr 17, 2020 |
165.00
|
Call
|
0.10
Debit
|
Target Metrics
Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio |
---|---|---|
$1.57 | $1.00 | 1.57 |
REALIZED RESULTS
P/L | ROI |
---|---|
+1.47 | 42.86% |
Closing a bit early as it's one less thing for me to manage if it challenges my position later in the session.
SYMBOL | Strategy | Side | Effect | Qty | Expiration | Strike | Type | Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GLD
|
Bear Call
|
Sold
|
Open
|
-1
|
Apr 17, 2020 |
160.00
|
Call
|
|
Bought
|
Open
|
+1
|
Apr 17, 2020 |
165.00
|
Call
|
1.57
Credit
|
Target Metrics
Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio |
---|---|---|
$1.57 | $1.00 | 1.57 |
ACTUAL PARAMETERS
Reward | Risk | Trade Risk |
---|---|---|
$1.57 | $3.43 | 3.00% |
As discussed in Trade Talk on 4/13, I expect GLD to find decent resistance around the 160.50 price level.
LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN
I will look to close this position if it appears we are closing above the 161.00 price level
PROFIT MANAGEMENT PLAN
I will likely allow this position to expire worthless.
SYMBOL | Strategy | Side | Effect | Qty | Expiration | Strike | Type | Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPX
|
Bull Put
|
Bought
|
Close
|
+1
|
Apr 3, 2020 |
2590.00
|
Put
|
|
Sold
|
Close
|
-1
|
Apr 3, 2020 |
2585.00
|
Put
|
4.50
Debit
|
Target Metrics
Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio |
---|---|---|
$1.00 | $1.20 | 0.83 |
REALIZED RESULTS
P/L | ROI |
---|---|
-3.50 | -87.50% |
I was waiting for a recovery of the wave 4. It seems like the lower end of wave 4 has more to go, rather than go to max loss, I'm getting out and will add a new position back when wave 4 has more defined ranges. Likely 2400 to the upper 50% range (approx 2650 in /es) in the chart. We have not recovered as far as I would like so I have decided to cut the position loose.
SYMBOL | Strategy | Side | Effect | Qty | Expiration | Strike | Type | Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPX
|
Bull Put
|
Sold
|
Open
|
-1
|
Apr 3, 2020 |
2590.00
|
Put
|
|
Bought
|
Open
|
+1
|
Apr 3, 2020 |
2585.00
|
Put
|
1.00
Credit
|
Target Metrics
Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio |
---|---|---|
$1.00 | $1.20 | 0.83 |
ACTUAL PARAMETERS
Reward | Risk | Trade Risk |
---|---|---|
$1.00 | $4.00 | 3.00% |
*********ROLLING POSITION******** With SPY coming into zone support, after breaking below the pivot, I have decided to roll this position to Friday. I am updating my prices as follows: Original credit 2.10- 1.10 debit to roll, new net credit $1.00. I am keeping my same size. ***CORRECTION TO LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN*** As discussed in the Trade Talk meeting from 03/30, I expect the market to continue to migrate slightly higher over the next several sessions with the SPX migrating up to at least the 2665 price level.
LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN
I will look to close this position if we appear like we will close below the low of the day from 03/30 which is the 2545 price level
PROFIT MANAGEMENT PLAN
I will likely allow this position to expire worthless but will be monitoring how price responds to the 2665 price level and if rejected at that level and moves back below the 2615 level I will capture profits early.
SYMBOL | Strategy | Side | Effect | Qty | Expiration | Strike | Type | Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPX
|
Bear Call
|
Bought
|
Close
|
+1
|
Apr 1, 2020 |
2565.00
|
Call
|
|
Sold
|
Close
|
-1
|
Apr 1, 2020 |
2570.00
|
Call
|
3.00
Debit
|
Target Metrics
Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio |
---|---|---|
$2.00 | $2.10 | 0.95 |
REALIZED RESULTS
P/L | ROI |
---|---|
-0.10 | -4.76% |
i dont want a position 100 points in the money and we likely extend to 2660. I will add the position back at the upper levels.
SYMBOL | Strategy | Side | Effect | Qty | Expiration | Strike | Type | Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPX
|
Bear Call
|
Sold
|
Open
|
-1
|
Apr 1, 2020 |
2565.00
|
Call
|
|
Bought
|
Open
|
+1
|
Apr 1, 2020 |
2570.00
|
Call
|
2.90
Credit
|
Target Metrics
Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio |
---|---|---|
$2.00 | $2.10 | 0.95 |
ACTUAL PARAMETERS
Reward | Risk | Trade Risk |
---|---|---|
$2.90 | $2.10 | 5.00% |
As discussed in our Zones workshop on 3-26, we feel that price should cluster at this upper level and not close above this ascending auction zone with the highs around approximately 2570
LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN
Exit if we look to be closing above the ascending auction zone
PROFIT MANAGEMENT PLAN
allow this position to expire worthless
SYMBOL | Strategy | Side | Effect | Qty | Expiration | Strike | Type | Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA
|
Bear Call
|
Bought
|
Close
|
+1
|
Apr 3, 2020 |
180.00
|
Call
|
|
Sold
|
Close
|
-1
|
Apr 3, 2020 |
185.00
|
Call
|
2.40
Debit
|
Target Metrics
Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio |
---|---|---|
$2.25 | $2.65 | 0.85 |
REALIZED RESULTS
P/L | ROI |
---|---|
-0.15 | -5.45% |
we are likely to extend further, no need to ride through the pain. I will add back on at upper levels.
SYMBOL | Strategy | Side | Effect | Qty | Expiration | Strike | Type | Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA
|
Bear Call
|
Sold
|
Open
|
-1
|
Apr 3, 2020 |
180.00
|
Call
|
|
Bought
|
Open
|
+1
|
Apr 3, 2020 |
185.00
|
Call
|
2.25
Credit
|
Target Metrics
Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio |
---|---|---|
$2.25 | $2.65 | 0.85 |
ACTUAL PARAMETERS
Reward | Risk | Trade Risk |
---|---|---|
$2.25 | $2.75 | 5.00% |
As discussed in zones on 3-25, I expect BA to fail at this red distribution zone. here is my chart: https://tos.mx/CdOxYib
LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN
Close if we look to be exploring higher and closing above the distribution area
PROFIT MANAGEMENT PLAN
Allow it to expire worthless:
SYMBOL | Strategy | Side | Effect | Qty | Expiration | Strike | Type | Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPX
|
Bear Call
|
Bought
|
Close
|
+1
|
Mar 25, 2020 |
2400.00
|
Call
|
|
Sold
|
Close
|
-1
|
Mar 25, 2020 |
2410.00
|
Call
|
1.00
Debit
|
Target Metrics
Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio |
---|---|---|
$5.30 | $3.00 | 1.77 |
REALIZED RESULTS
P/L | ROI |
---|---|
+4.30 | 91.49% |
FILLED. As discussed in our Trade Talk on 03/23, I am closing this position early and anticipate being able to get back in on a bounce back up to around the 2270 price level.
SYMBOL | Strategy | Side | Effect | Qty | Expiration | Strike | Type | Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPX
|
Bear Call
|
Sold
|
Open
|
-1
|
Mar 25, 2020 |
2400.00
|
Call
|
|
Bought
|
Open
|
+1
|
Mar 25, 2020 |
2410.00
|
Call
|
5.30
Credit
|
Target Metrics
Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio |
---|---|---|
$5.30 | $3.00 | 1.77 |
ACTUAL PARAMETERS
Reward | Risk | Trade Risk |
---|---|---|
$5.30 | $4.70 | 5.00% |
The SPX has retracted into a 130.9 fib level that I expect to hold as resistance until price has migrated down into a major 161.8 fib level as seen in the chart I've attached to this position which is highlighted with a yellow box. Please note that this is a 10x spread as there wasn't a 5x available at the strikes I wanted in the 25 Mar expiration.
LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN
I will look to close this position if it appears we are going to close above the 2470 price level
PROFIT MANAGEMENT PLAN
I will likely allow this position to expire worthless.
SYMBOL | Strategy | Side | Effect | Qty | Expiration | Strike | Type | Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AMZN
|
Bear Call
|
Bought
|
Close
|
+1
|
Apr 17, 2020 |
1900.00
|
Call
|
|
Sold
|
Close
|
-1
|
Apr 17, 2020 |
1905.00
|
Call
|
2.00
Debit
|
Target Metrics
Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio |
---|---|---|
$2.75 | $1.10 | 2.50 |
REALIZED RESULTS
P/L | ROI |
---|---|
+0.75 | 33.33% |
Going to look to restructure this position in a nearer term expiration follow the bounce as discussed in Trade Talk on 03/23.
SYMBOL | Strategy | Side | Effect | Qty | Expiration | Strike | Type | Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AMZN
|
Bear Call
|
Sold
|
Open
|
-1
|
Apr 17, 2020 |
1900.00
|
Call
|
|
Bought
|
Open
|
+1
|
Apr 17, 2020 |
1905.00
|
Call
|
2.75
Credit
|
Target Metrics
Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio |
---|---|---|
$2.75 | $1.10 | 2.50 |
ACTUAL PARAMETERS
Reward | Risk | Trade Risk |
---|---|---|
$2.75 | $2.25 | 7.00% |
I expect AMZN to continue to migrate lower now that it has retraced 50% of it's recent move. Over the next 1-3 months I expect AMZN to move down to the 1650, then the 1450, back up to the 1600 and then bottom out at approx. the 1300-1250 price level. Here's my shared chart: http://tos.mx/BBJ98rL
LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN
I will look to close this position if it appears we are going to close above the 1960 price level on the weekly chart
PROFIT MANAGEMENT PLAN
I will likely allow this position to expire worthless.
SYMBOL | Strategy | Side | Effect | Qty | Expiration | Strike | Type | Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPX
|
Bear Call
|
Bought
|
Close
|
+1
|
Mar 20, 2020 |
2540.00
|
Call
|
|
Sold
|
Close
|
-1
|
Mar 20, 2020 |
2545.00
|
Call
|
0.90
Debit
|
Target Metrics
Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio |
---|---|---|
$2.90 | $1.10 | 2.64 |
REALIZED RESULTS
P/L | ROI |
---|---|
+2.00 | 95.24% |
Although we likely have slightly lower to go before a short term relief rally, I am closing this position down now to avoid the volatility.
SYMBOL | Strategy | Side | Effect | Qty | Expiration | Strike | Type | Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPX
|
Bear Call
|
Sold
|
Open
|
-1
|
Mar 20, 2020 |
2540.00
|
Call
|
|
Bought
|
Open
|
+1
|
Mar 20, 2020 |
2545.00
|
Call
|
2.90
Credit
|
Target Metrics
Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio |
---|---|---|
$2.90 | $1.10 | 2.64 |
ACTUAL PARAMETERS
Reward | Risk | Trade Risk |
---|---|---|
$2.90 | $2.10 | 7.00% |
As the market has confirmed expectations that we are still likely going to continue lower into the 2250ish price level, I am adding an additional position at the 50% level from Friday's (03/13) low-high level which is around the 2540 level in /ES. I continue to expect that we extend lower over the next week into the 2250 price level.
LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN
If the market moves above 2700, then reconsider the market analysis.
PROFIT MANAGEMENT PLAN
Looking to expire worthless.
SYMBOL | Strategy | Side | Effect | Qty | Expiration | Strike | Type | Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPX
|
Bear Call
|
Bought
|
Close
|
+1
|
Mar 20, 2020 |
2570.00
|
Call
|
|
Sold
|
Close
|
-1
|
Mar 20, 2020 |
2575.00
|
Call
|
0.65
Debit
|
Target Metrics
Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio |
---|---|---|
$2.90 | $1.10 | 2.64 |
REALIZED RESULTS
P/L | ROI |
---|---|
+2.25 | 107.14% |
Although we likely have slightly lower to go before a short term relief rally, I am closing this position down now to avoid the volatility.
SYMBOL | Strategy | Side | Effect | Qty | Expiration | Strike | Type | Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPX
|
Bear Call
|
Sold
|
Open
|
-1
|
Mar 20, 2020 |
2570.00
|
Call
|
|
Bought
|
Open
|
+1
|
Mar 20, 2020 |
2575.00
|
Call
|
2.90
Credit
|
Target Metrics
Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio |
---|---|---|
$2.90 | $1.10 | 2.64 |
ACTUAL PARAMETERS
Reward | Risk | Trade Risk |
---|---|---|
$2.90 | $2.10 | 7.00% |
It appears that the market will stall out in the current area and reverse in the next week and migrate down to approx the 2250 price level
LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN
If the market moves above 2700, then reconsider the market analysis.
PROFIT MANAGEMENT PLAN
Looking to expire worthless.
SYMBOL | Strategy | Side | Effect | Qty | Expiration | Strike | Type | Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPX
|
Bull Put
|
Bought
|
Close
|
+1
|
Mar 13, 2020 |
2780.00
|
Put
|
|
Sold
|
Close
|
-1
|
Mar 13, 2020 |
2775.00
|
Put
|
4.50
Debit
|
Target Metrics
Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio |
---|---|---|
$2.10 | $1.50 | 1.40 |
REALIZED RESULTS
P/L | ROI |
---|---|
-2.40 | -82.76% |
Although with the volatility we are having there is a small chance the market recovers to give a better exit, I decided to save myself 0.50 and close in preparation for new positions over the next several days as discussed in Trade Talk on 03/12 which can be viewed here: https://thesupertrader.com/tt-03-12-2020/
SYMBOL | Strategy | Side | Effect | Qty | Expiration | Strike | Type | Price |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPX
|
Bull Put
|
Sold
|
Open
|
-1
|
Mar 13, 2020 |
2780.00
|
Put
|
|
Bought
|
Open
|
+1
|
Mar 13, 2020 |
2775.00
|
Put
|
2.10
Credit
|
Target Metrics
Reward | Risk | R/R Ratio |
---|---|---|
$2.10 | $1.50 | 1.40 |
ACTUAL PARAMETERS
Reward | Risk | Trade Risk |
---|---|---|
$2.10 | $2.90 | 5.00% |
As discussed in the post-market review from 03/10, I expected us to backtrade down to approx. the 2770 price level but expect that level to hold and see price move up into the 2915 price level over the next several sessions.
LOSS MANAGEMENT PLAN
I will look to close this position if it appears that we will close below the 2770 price level
PROFIT MANAGEMENT PLAN
I will likely look to capture profits around the 2900-2915 price levels.